A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
